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Although the 15 European Union countries finally ratified the 1997 Kyoto Protocol in June 2002, the treaty is still some way from coming into force.  

This won’t happen until it is ratified by nations responsible for 55 percent of the industrial countries' 1990 emissions of CO2.   So far countries responsible for just over 37 percent have ratified.

The US certainly won’t.  Even under the Clinton administration the Senate rejected the treaty 95-0.  Australia also announced in June that it would not ratify.  

This means the treaty needs pretty much all other developed counties to ratify.   It certainly needs Russia, which would add 17.4 percent of emissions to the target. 

Fortunately for those of us who agree with George Bush that the treaty is fatally flawed, the Russians seem to be having second thoughts.   

In March Vladimir Grachev, leader of the Duma ecology committee had threatened that Russia will not ratify unless the European Union enters into negotiations with them about terms and conditions of the protocol with particular regard to international trade.

Now Russian Deputy Minister Mukhamed Tsikanov of the Ministry for Economic Development and Trade has warned at the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg that it may yet be rejected: "There is a risk, there is a risk, without a doubt."

"Because... we don't have the economic stimulus, the economic interest in the Kyoto Protocol."

Moscow feels billions of dollars it had expected to earn by selling "rights to pollute" under the treaty's quota trading mechanism are now in doubt since the U.S., the biggest potential buyer, has pulled out.

"That means that it turns out that Russia is losing a potential market for its trading quota. The economic stimulus to the Kyoto Protocol is disappearing," Tsikanov said.

Tsikanov said his ministry would report to the government next month having gathered data from various departments on the likely impacts of ratification.

The solution may be for the EU to buy the permits.  

Ironically throughout the climate negotiations, the EU opposed such 'international emissions trading' on the grounds that it was simply giving money for 'hot air'.   

However if the treaty does come into force the governments there will have to move from easy words to hard action if they are to meet their targets.   Real action will slow economic development as opponents of the treaty have long warned.  Neither voters nor politicians will like that.   

Fortunately it turns out that Russia and the Eastern European states were given such easy targets under Kyoto that they have emission credits to spare.   This would let the EU carry on with the slow reduction in carbon emissions that would happen anyway as people move from coal to natural gas without imposing the heavy costs of meeting Kyoto’s targets.   The Greens will howl but at least most of the harm that would have arisen from Kyoto will have been avoided. 

Jim Thornton 30 August 2002

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Last modified: September 20, 2006