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500 up for the ConservativesMuch better than predictedThe Conservative made net gains of 27 councils and over 500 seats. They are now the largest party in local government in Great Britain.
Labour suffered a net loss of over 700 seats, their worst result since the ‘Winter of Discontent’. Their vote share means they are in danger of falling behind the Liberal Democrats.
Despite Labour’s net losses of over 700 seats, the Liberal Democrats made net gains of well under 200. And in total, at the time of writing, they had picked up control of just 2 extra councils. The Conservatives picked up more than three times as many net seat gains and nine times as many extra councils. In fact, the Liberal Democrats control just 27 councils in the whole of England. Tories won that many last night alone alone.
These results are much better than commentators predicted. 1. Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, the directors of the Local Government Chronicle Elections Centre at the University of Plymouth, have made various predictions since the start of the year. · February: ‘our latest analysis of the pattern of local by-elections leads us to expect the Conservatives effectively to stand still’ (LGC, 6 February 2003). · March: ‘ “the Tories will be unlikely to make more than 50 to 100 net gains” said Rawlings. There was even a possibility they could end up with no extra seats at all… “The Tories currently stand just one point ahead of where they were at the time of the 1999 local elections” ’ (The Times, 2 March 2003). · April: ‘Conservative Central Office is right to give itself room for manoeuvre by pitching expectations low. The Conservatives are on course to make 100-200 gains’ (LGC, 25 April 2003). They added, Liberal Democrats could ‘emerge some 300 seats better off’ and ‘Labour may lose up to 500 seats’. Their prediction was based on national equivalent shares of the vote of Conservatives 36 per cent, Labour 29 per cent, Liberal Democrats 29 per cent and Others 6 per cent. 2. Tony Travers, a local government expert at the London School of Economics, has said that Labour could lose 200-300 seats, we could gain 150-200 seats and Liberal Democrats could gain 150-250 seats. Conservatives would need to win 250-300 seats to shows they ‘were on their way back’ (The Times, 11 April 2003). 3. BBC News Analysis & Research set a series of benchmarks for each party in their guide to the local elections, Vote 2003: Local Elections In England & Scotland: ‘Conservatives Net loss - Disaster: Mid term election offering over 6,000 targets and these are missed. Con gains up to 200: Pretty unconvincing performance given so many seats contested this year. Similar performance to May 2002. Con gains 200-400: A better performance than last year but not up to where Hague was in 2000. Con gains 400-500: Broadly restores them to the position they held before the massacre of 1995. Welcome, but in 1995 the party had been in government for 16 years not, as now, six years in opposition. Con gains 500-750: Success becoming more and more solid. Con gains 750+: Real breakthrough. Labour being hammered. IDS untouchable.
Overall by even the BBC's benchmark the Tories had a solid success last night. Click here to read the Bilsthorpe results Figures from The Consevative Research Department
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