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Prediction for 2088

Made in 1998

In 90 years, the non-Indian commercial salmon fisheries in Washington and Oregon will be gone. The political power of recreational fishers and the treaty rights of the Indians spell the inevitable end of the traditional commercial salmon industry. Recreational salmon fishers will be fishing almost exclusively hook-and-release--there simply won't be enough fish to go around. The tribal fisheries will have abandoned gill netting and replaced it by much more selective fishing methods such as lift nets, fish wheels or modified purse-seining. Most of the hatcheries around the state will be abandoned, victims of their economic inefficiency, continued budget cuts, and concern about wild fish.

The commercial marine fisheries will be almost unrecognizable. In order to obtain the approval of powerful Alaskan politicians, much of the ownership of the right to catch fish will be granted to coastal communities, who will, in turn, lease their catching rights to large corporations. The owner-operator will be almost extinct as a fishing institution, replaced by vessels owned by large companies. The traditional, small-scale fishers will survive primarily in the invertebrate fisheries such as clams and abalone.

Biologically stocks will continue to rise and fall with environmental conditions, but the marine fisheries will generally be healthy, with numerous small and a few large marine reserves set aside as parks and spawning refuges. Despite considerable political effort, the habitat base for salmon will continue to decline as the growing human population competes with fish for water, stream frontage and land use. Efforts to save habitat will be reasonably successful in forest watersheds, where changes in forest practice will improve conditions for salmon, but in suburban and urban areas these attempts will be much less successful.

University of Washington Fisheries Professor Ray Hilborn

Click here for the original prediction

This guy is in the wrong iGreen section.  He's an optimist.   Salmon will be more valuable to fish for sport than to eat, and marine fisheries will generally be healthy, because ownership of the right to catch fish will have been granted to someone.  We think he will be proven right.

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Last modified: September 10, 2006